The Predictability of the Extratropical Flow Response to Recurving Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Abstract Given the ability of recurving Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) to disturb amplitude Rossby waves on extratropical jet, this study investigates whether predictability synoptic-scale flow is significantly modified from climatology downstream and after TC recurvature events. Predictability evaluated as standard deviation isentropic potential vorticity among a 50-member ensemble compared model climatology. It shown that forecast uncertainty dependent upon relative location nearest trough at time zonal speed between aforementioned in 72 hours recurvature. degraded when occurs trough; elevated subsequently propagates along with axis. Furthermore, evaluates spectral space order distinguish tied exact troughs ridges wave amplitude. The wavelet analysis demonstrates increase not solely limited location, there also originates upstream spans across ridges. Uncertainty increased near longitude subset cases which train zonally slower than recurvature, hypothesized be linked baroclinic growth processes.